Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

by Ray Dalio

Overview

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER

“A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.

A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.

In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781982160272
Publisher:	Avid Reader Press / Simon & Schuster
Publication date:	11/30/2021
Series:	Principles
Pages:	576
Sales rank:	4,083
Product dimensions:	6.30(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.60(d)

About the Author

Ray Dalio is Founder, Co-CIO and Member of the Bridgewater Board, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best-performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He is also #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. He lives with his family in Connecticut.

Table of Contents

Part I How the World Works 21

Introduction 1

1 The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell 23

2 The Determinants 57

Determinants Addendum 81

3 The Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity 103

4 The Changing Value of Money 131

5 The Big Cycle of internal Order and Disorder 149

6 The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder 193

7 Investing in Light of the Big Cycle 217

Part II How the World has Worked Over the Last 500 Years 241

8 The Last 500 Years in a Tiny Nutshell 243

9 The Big Cycle Rise and Decline of the Dutch Empire and the Guilder 245

10 The Big Cycle Rise and Decline of the British Empire and the Pound 291

11 The Big Cycle Rise and Decline of the United States and the Dollar 331

12 The Big Cycle Rise of China and the Renminbi 363

13 US-China Relations and Wars 423

Part III The Future 461

14 The Future 463

Appendix: Computer Analysis of the Conditions of, and Prospects for, the World's Leading Countries 513

Editorial Reviews

The book is a provocative read for those of us questioning where in the arc of history the American Empire resides and what may happen to the economy next. There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.”
—Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

“Dalio’s impressive book . . . has, if not changed my mind, then at least massively shifted the needle on how I see cycle theories. . . . Dalio avoids most of the traps associated with cycle theories. The Changing World Order is jam-packed with charts, showing long-run changes in major countries, often reaching back centuries. . . . He manages to do what many successful investors writing books about their investment lens fail at: delivering something new and interesting without giving away precisely the secret sauce that fueled his success.”
—Joakim Book, American Institute for Economic Research

“Ray Dalio has a special talent for identifying the key questions of our time. In this sweeping new book, he marshals a variety of economic, social, and political measures to trace the rise and decline of nations. It is a serious contribution—and an urgent warning to the West.”
—Henry Kissinger

“An audacious, practical guide to the rise and fall of empires over the last five hundred years of history—with important lessons for the U.S. and China today.”
—Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University and author of Destined for War

“Ray Dalio has a unique talent for making important and complex issues simple. I was riveted by his descriptions of the cause/effect relationships that drove the last five hundred years of history and how they provide practical guidance for dealing with what is happening now. This may well be the most important book of the year if not the decade. A must-read.”
—Arianna Huffington

“A super provocative, super important must-read. It lines up a lot of facts to create a scary picture that’s hard to refute.”
—Bill Gates

“When Ray Dalio talks, I listen. His new book is remarkable in its scope—shedding new light on the biggest reasons nations win in the global economic and political arenas, and applying it to China and the US today. After reading this book, you probably won’t see the world the same again.”
—Henry Paulson

“Ray Dalio’s latest book should be required reading for everyone. It would be irresponsible not to understand what Ray has laid out, steeped in history, serving as a roadmap for the future.”
—Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management

“History is too important to leave to historians. Only Ray Dalio would have the brilliant audacity to attempt such a synthesis of the financial, economic, and political history of the world. Agree or disagree, Dalio’s book is essential reading to understand our times.”
—Lawrence H. Summers

“How do we learn from history so that we don’t repeat the same mistakes that have led to the downfall of nations? By reading Ray's book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. Ray shows us how history can provide a template to help guide how we might think about what comes next. And for those of us who might shudder at reading 576 pages, he provides an ingenious highlighted path that makes the book a shockingly easy, yet comprehensive, read.”
—Mark Cuban

“Everything Ray Dalio writes is compelling reading for the investor and the policymaker. This is an excellent, deeply thoughtful study of what drives the rise and demise of economic cycles and empires.”
—Tim Geithner

“Ray Dalio has an uncanny capacity to understand what is happening in the world and develop principles that allow him to prepare for what’s ahead. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order is a must-read full of insights into where the world is today and where it’s going.”
—Tony Robbins

“Ray does an astounding job of giving us an inspiring and thought-provoking experience by looking at the rises and declines of empires, showing how economics, culture, military prowess, innovation, inequality, and other elements interact. He leaves us with an improved perspective for thinking about very vexing issues such as the state of America versus China.”
—Jamie Dimon

Praise for Ray Dalio's Principles: Life and Work, Winner of the Axiom Business Book Award for 2018

“Mr. Dalio has long been an object of fascination. . . . His new book is more significant than the original list of principles: It is part memoir, part how-to guide. It is a deeply personal story, with Mr. Dalio wading into how he started his firm in 1975, internal conflicts inside the company, and strife early on in his career. The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving. . . . Underneath what may seem like a clinical, emotionless approach is something different and far more poignant: Mr. Dalio is preaching for individuals to have a sense of humility and introspection, an ability to open themselves to appreciate pointed criticism and use it to improve.”
—The New York Times

“If there was an ‘it’ book for businesses or careers in 2017, it was Ray Dalio’s Principles. The book, weighing in at nearly 600 pages, begins with the author’s own story, including the rise of Bridgewater Associates, Dalio’s highly successful investment firm. Part memoir, part strategic plan, Dalio uses his own history to provide suggestions on attaining success while always stressing the power of individuality and personal goals. This isn’t just a book for the power elite. Dalio’s highly detailed game plan focuses on what he calls ‘radical’ truths and transparencies, and are applicable to the careers of powerful CEOs, ladder-climbing executives, longtime grunts, and fresh-faced rookies.”
—Chicago Tribune

“Ray Dalio has provided me with invaluable guidance and insights that are now available to you in Principles.”
—Bill Gates

“I found it to be truly extraordinary. Every page is full of so many principles of distinction and insights—and I love how Ray incorporates his history and his life in such an elegant way.”
—Tony Robbins

“Ray Dalio’s market acumen is legendary, but it was creating and living by a set of principles that allowed him to reach the top. Everyone with goals and dreams can learn from Ray’s approach.”
—Michael Bloomberg

“I was surprisingly moved by it. I found it to be remarkably engaging. It made me think about life and how we all deal with each other in pretty profound ways. And Mr. Dalio’s own story about how he came to these principles is fascinating.”
—Andrew Ross Sorkin

“The billionaire investor has created the strongest culture I’ve ever seen in an organization—one that prizes radical transparency over politics and meritocracy over democracy. In his long-awaited book, he describes the systems that he has designed to shape meaningful work, meaningful relationships, and the world’s most successful hedge fund.”
—Adam Grant

“I highly, highly recommend this book. It has already changed how I think about making decisions in my life and in my business.”
—Tim Ferriss

“Principles had a profound positive impact on my leadership style—through living more honestly.”
—Reed Hastings

“Among a handful of philosopher-investors known not only for moneymaking prowess but also for their distinctive take on life.”
—The Wall Street Journal

“What makes Dalio compelling is not just his track record but the way he goes about making money, and the rigorous analysis he applies to understanding markets, organizations, the economy, and life.”
—Fortune

From the Publisher